Election projections on Pretoria FM
Deur Sarina on Mei 7, 2019
Pretoria FM, in collaboration with Maroela Media, has developed a system that will be able to accurately project this year’s final election results soon after the first results have been received.
We will also reflect all results as they are received.
The projections will be available on the Pretoria FM, Maroela Media and The South African websites from Wednesday night.
The system developer is mathematician Dr Oloff de Wet. He designed the Pretoria FM projection program in collaboration with other experts.
In addition to his talent for, and interest in statistics, Dr De Wet and his brother, Dr Muir de Wet, built a yacht with which they are currently sailing around the world.
The yacht, named “Ongemak” (“Discomfort”), is currently moored in the South American state of Suriname while the De Wet brothers are in South Africa to work on this year’s election projections.
These are not predictions – they are statistical projections based on results already received. The method is based on on the exact voting history of each of the country’s nearly 23 000 polling stations, projected onto the results of this year’s election as soon as a polling station’s result is received from the IEC. Along with the polling station’s relative weight (in number of voters) in relation to to the ultimate total and taking into account the percentage poll, the change in support for political parties is calibrated to obtain a projected final result.
“In this way we are going to bring our current and projected final vote for each provincial election and the nationally-updated regular election to our readers and listeners as soon as we receive a fairly representative group of results,” said Pretoria FM’s editor-in-chief of news and actuality, Mr James Kemp.
The goal is to get the right results for five of the biggest parties – the ANC, DA, EFF, IFP and FF Plus – as fast and accurate as possible to our readers and listeners. The objective and preliminary indication is that the model works so well that we hope to be faster and more accurate than all competitors in projecting correct final results.
To stay updated about the election results, tune in to the broadcasts of Pretoria FM on radio as well as on DStv’s audio channel 887, or visit the website www.pretoriafm.co.za as well as all the social media platforms of Pretoria FM and Maroela Media.
We are excited to provide South Africans with the best reporting and forecasts available.